Paul Krugman en NY Times, hoy

Paul Krugman es una persona informada. En 1991 la American Economic Association le concedió la medalla John Bates Clark. Ganó el Premio Príncipe de Asturias de Ciencias Socialesen el año 2004 y el Premio Nobel de Economía en 2008. Vale la pena tener en cuenta las posibilidades que apunta para tomar decisiones empresariales, profesionales, familiares y personales. Con optimismo sí, y con conocimiento también. Merece la pena su artículo de hoy:

Some of us have been talking it over, and here’s what we think the end game looks like:

1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.

2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.

3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.

3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing.

4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy — basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:

4b. End of the euro.

And we’re talking about months, not years, for this to play out.

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